What does an economic index begun in 1744 in London have to do with getting road salt to Cedar Rapids, Iowa in November 2008? It would be speculation, to be sure, to connect the dots, but one thing is certain: the veritable Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is not speculative. The BDI captures real shipping costs around the world and reflects not just the cost of moving raw materials like salt, but is a reliable proxy for economic activity.

Lately, of course, it's been plunging. The inventory of cargo ships is pretty inelastic, so when economic activity stagnates and shipping demand follows, the index falls. Lower shipping rates are great for those who still have goods to ship, of course. And that gets us back to road salt.

With all North American mines working at capacity and fearful snowfighting agencies voicing anxious demand for more salt deliveries, salvation can come only through increased salt imports. With lowered shipping costs, those imports should be more affordable this year than in the past when higher shipping rates economically advantaged domestic producers.

Perhaps the lower BDI, as well as the evidence surge in demand for road salt, explains why the lead story of the October 20 issue of River Transport News reported a spike in salt imports into New Orleans and likely record volumes of upriver salt barge shipments.

Still, yesterday, we received three media calls from Michigan alone. Clearly, if help is on the way, it hasn't arrived yet.

Confirming earlier studies by Global Insight, Inc. and Iowa State University (and, doubtless, many others), the Washington State DOT just released a report on a four-day, winter weather closure of Interstate 90 at Snoqualmie Pass last winter with a total economic loss of $28 million.

The study employs new economic impact assessment methods developed by Washington State University's Social and Economic Sciences Research Center seeking "a reality-based, comprehensive analysis of the effects … on the state's freight-dependent industries and the economy as a whole." The study included a survey of trucking firms and freight-dependent businesses. The study found the four-day storm cost 170 people their jobs and those still employed were penalized $8.6 million in lost wages. State tax revenues declined $1.42 million through reduced economic activity. That's one short segment of one road for one storm.

The "first significant import shipment of bulk salt in more than four years" has hit New Orleans, according to the lead story in the October 20 issue of River Transport News. "Industry observers indicated that over the last three weeks, lower Mississippi imports have accelerated with the arrival of several 40,000-ton shipments. Additional shipments are expected." If sustained, the Port of New Orleans "salt imports could approach or exceed record levels." The previous record was set in 2001 and was nearly matched two years later.

The headline, "Booming Salt Demand Adds More Pressure to Barge Freight," tells the corollary story: upriver salt shipments are straining available barge capacity. "It appears that riverborne salt shipments could reach a new record high this year, exceeding the previous record of 9.7 million tons set in 2004," the RTN story reported. They have averaged 8.5 million tons since 1996, the story added. The additional stress is magnified, the story continued.

Under normal circumstances, the projected increase in riverborne salt shipments would cause barely a ripple in the inland barge market. This year, however, salt shipments are being compressed into a significantly shorter shipping window.

Salt shipments into the upper Midwest got an extremely late start this past spring. The heavy snows and severe weather last winter and spring not only resulted in heavy salt usage; it also resulted in the latest opening of the upper Mississippi River to navigation on record. Shipments were further disrupted in May and June as the upper Mississippi River was periodically closed to navigation due to flooding and high water.

When the reporter called for our explanation for the spike in imports, I noted that they seem to reflect the "supply" response to the "demand" signal sent out a couple months ago by Upper Mississippi state DOTs who sought vastly expanded bid amounts of deicing salt. Surprise. Markets work!

The Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MTO), like most cutting-edge snowfighters in North America, has moved strongly into using liquids in its winter maintenance functions. Among the motivations: reducing the amount of salt used to keep the roadways clear and safe. Unlike many agencies, however, MTO determined to document the benefits achieved by adopting pre-wetting of rock salt and use of salt brine applied directly to roadways ("direct liquid application" or DLA). MTO's chef technology researcher Max Perchanok, reported the agency's findings to the Ontario Good Roads Association's annual Snow and Ice Colloquium yesterday.

MTO's prediction in adopting pre-wetting was that they could achieve the same level of service and save about a third of the salt they applied. An early 1995-99 test using 5% brine achieved a 23% salt reduction and a follow-up study in 2002-03 found that increasing the brine component to 7-15% achieved salt savings of 18% to 40%. As a result, 99% of MTO's (mostly-contractor-operated) fleet now is equipped for pre-wetting. Adoption of pre-wetting was confirmed in another study in 2004-2006 which found an 8% to 30% reduction in granular salt usage.

MTO also moved towards DLA with forecast salt savings of 20% to 30% and all its contractors incorporated DLA into their operations by the wnter of 2005-2006. Confirmatory research, however produced disparate results ranging from no salt savings to savings of 50%. MTO has concluded that it has achieved overall salt reduction, but "salt savings are not confirmed" because of the "highly variable results."

Most surpriing to MTO was the corollary examination of the outcomes of using liquids. Using liquids has allowed the agency to reduce the frequency of salt applications by 17% to 33%. A study in Kenora determined that using liquids reduced the time to achieve bare pavement from an average of 20 hours in 2000 to an average of only 2 hours in 2003 when DLA was implemented. "The level of service improved," MTO concludes. Moreover, a study in Waterloo found a dramatic improvment in crash prevention. Anti-icing with liquids was found far more effective than using pre-wet salt; the study, however, identified only marginal safety improvements in using pre-wet salt which is directly counter to an established relationship in the published research literature that shows performing winter maintenance service slashes crash rates by 85% and injuries by 88%.

In sum, MTO found using liquids improved their operations and, particularly the safety of Ontario highways, achieving a higher level of service and delivering on predicted salt savings, though this latter conclusion was supported only with inconsistent data.

When budgets get tight, inexperienced managers may curtail training as a frill. Big mistake. Training helps managers get the most from their resources, argues the latest Salt & Highway Deicing newsletter which explains "Earning above-average ROI on your snow and ice control training." Learn how to evaluate how improving operators' attitudes and understanding pays dividends for your agency.

Today's Chicago Tribune informed readers of emergency meetings being held this week among public works managers of Chicago's northern suburbs. Tara Malone and Carolyn Starks reported:

As summer nears its final stretch, many cities and towns across the northern suburbs are stuck in a very wintry, administrative snowdrift: They have no road salt, supply is tight and prices are through the roof.

A similar story appeared in today's Pittsburgh, PA Tribune-Review.

Thirty-four salt storage facilities in 7 states and 2 Canadian provinces were first-time winners in the Salt Institute's 2008 Excellence in Storage Award program. The winners were unveiled during the American Public Works Association Congress today in New Orleans. An additional 63 facilities earned "continuing excellence" designation. Visit our website for more details.

The latest Salt and Highway Deicing features a discussion on how agencies can optimize "Inventory Management and Cost Minimization." Coming out of last winter's near-record salt usage, agency storage facilities were largely empty making the article timely reading for snowfighting professionals.

The Transportation Research Board has produced a new report, Cost effective performance measures for travel time delay, variation and reliability with application and implications for winter roadway operations. NCHRP Report 618 argues that highway

system users-the traveling public, as well as commercial operators-are increasingly sensitive to delay and unreliable conditions. By measuring travel-time performance, and related system metrics based on travel time, agencies will be better able to plan and operate their systems to achieve the best result for a given level of investment. At the same time, travelers, shippers, and other users of those systems will have better information for planning their use of the system.

In winter storms, agencies meet their "customers'" concerns for delay and reliability through salting and plowing. Measuring road surface outcomes is the key to delivering on customer expectations.

Report 618 guides agencies to using cost-effective techniques to gather and process data enabling real-time management decisions which can significantly improve winter roadway safety.

Snow Drifts is the monthly e-newsletter of the Snow and Ice Management Association (SIMA) offering "Articles by Snow People, For Snow People." The July issue features my article "Salt Supply and the Snow & Ice Contractor 2008/2009 Season" explaining the challenges salt suppliers face in providing road salt to the small private contractors who are SIMA members.

Measured by the number of media calls, requests for Salt Institute presentations and webinars and trade press articles, the "salt shortage" stories of last winter were just a warm-up for what we can expect in the coming months. Latest evidence: a story in the Elyria, OH Chronicle-Telegram by reporter Brad Dicken which extracted the pearl of our interview when he told readers:

Although increased fuel and transportation costs are contributing factors to the rise in prices - asphalt also shot up in price this year - last year's hard winter led to the nation using more salt than normal and leading to an increased demand this year, said Richard Hanneman, president of the Salt Institute.

What a market! Last year's 20.3 million tons of road salt was the second-highest ever. But the year before, 2006, we sold only 12.1 million tons, lowest since 1998. And the year earlier, 2005, set the all-time record of 20.5 million tons. Not too many industries are asked to boost sales by two-thirds in a year as the salt industry did from 2006 to 2007. And, from publicly announced bid amounts we've seen so far this year, agencies want even more.

Highway departments are understandably concerned to have enough salt this winter after last year's severe snowfighting season left them scrambling for scarce supplies and entirely emptied the "salt pipeline" everywhere from mines to customer storage facilities. Many increased their bids, putting even more pressure on salt production and distribution. The consequences surfaced in the form of higher bid prices; an example is this from Sandusky, OH.

Even working the mines around the clock, it's going to be tight this year. High water forced closure of the locks and dams on the upper Mississippi River for about four weeks and what consumers see as high gas prices at the pump are adding new costs to both production and, especially, salt distribution. Order early. Store a full year's supply. This age-old advice will be tested this winter.

Significant impacts on U.S. transportation planning are forecast in a new report about to be released by the Transportation Research Board, an arm of the National Academies of Science. TRB Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation concedes that "Little consensus exists among transportation professionals that climate change is occurring or warrants action now." But the report identifies "plausible future scenarios" which represent "significant challenges for transportation professionals." The committee "finds compelling scientific evidence that climate change is occurring, and that it will trigger new, extreme weather events."Special Report 290 identifies "five climate changes of particular importance to transportation and estimatedsthe probability of their occurrence during the twenty-first century." Included, as #4, is "Increases in intense precipitation events. It is highly likely (greater than 90 percent probability of occurrence) that intense precipitation events will continue to become more frequent in widespread areas of the United States." Louisiana being America's largest salt-producing state, the salt industry will be particularly interested in the report's prediction of increased coastal flooding, particularly of the Gulf coast and drier conditions in the upper Midwest "resulting in lower water levels and reduced capactiy to ship agricultural and other bulk commodities." Among the adaptive operational responses, the first example identified is "Snow and ice control accounts for about 40 percent of annual highway operating budgets in the northern U.S. states" and "operational responses are likely to become more routine and proactive than today's approach of treating severe weather on an ad hoc emergency basis." Roadway designers are encouraged to recognize the likelihood of more freeze-thaw cycles. In this, of course, snowfighting professionals are already well advanced in their "adaptation." The committee speculates that there will be "benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts to rainfall."

Canadian discussions and studies are more advanced than in the U.S. and also predict impacts on use of road salt for winter maintenance. In "Climate Change and Ontarios's Winter Roads: Trends and Impacts on Ontario Winter Road Maintainence Ops" and "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective," experts agreed that salt usage in southern and western Ontario would be unchanged by global warming, but that salt usage would increase in northern and eastern parts of the province.

The American Automobile Association last week released The AAA Crashes vs. Congestion Report arguing that societal costs from traffic fatalities and injuries is more than double the costs of congestion. Good reminder. We object only to the "versus" separating the twin concerns. We must insist on roads that are safe and congestion-free.

The study by Cambridge Systematics estimates that traffic crashes cost each American $1,051 for a total economic burden on the economy of $164.2 billion. Data from the Texas Transportation Institute put the tab for congestion at $67.6 billion or $430 per person. With Congress readying itself to tackle reauthorization of the federal surface transportation program next year and with the federal Highway Trust Fund approaching insolvency, these measures should be front-and-center in the public policy discussion.

For years, the anti-highway lobby has inveighed against "paving over America" and the highway lobby has foolishly cast the argument in terms of the deteriorating condition of the nation's roads and bridges. Too true. And when the I-35W bridge plunged into the Mississippi, the poignancy of the roadbuilders' lament was manifest. The thought of an aging and inadequate roadway infrastructure contributing to the 42,642 people killed last year on American roads is totally unacceptable. We know most of those deaths are avoidable and now we know the cost of under-funding highway improvments.

The quality of the policy debate, however, would be improved if we move beyond contesting the number of "structurally deficient" bridges or pothole-pocked or rutted roadway surfaces. Nor should we accept the notion that we need to starve investments in congestion relief to pay for safer roads. The two go hand in hand. Non-recurring congestion (the kind not caused by "rush hour") is associated with clearing traffic crashes and combatting weather conditions like snow & ice storms that contribute so much to those crashes. Simply applying salt as part of a professional winter operations program cuts 88.3% of the injury crashes and keeps the roads reliably available for our mobile society. In fact, in most states, the cost of failing to keep winter roads open through winter maintenance operations generally costs more for each day of failure than the annual cost of snowfighting (data by Global Insight, Inc.).

As Congress sets up the debate on highway spending, let's focus attention on the outcomes we can expect our roads to deliver. We shouldn't be building roads to create jobs (or re-elect politicos) nor should we endanger drivers' lives and our national economic competitiveness by short-sightedly opposing transportation improvements due to suspicion over the self-interested motivation of construction companies. Let's measure transportation outcomes -- the service we driver are paying for through our gas taxes -- and invest to reduce the tragic waste of more than 40,000 lives every year and reverse the corrosive erosion of reliable highway mobility caused by congestion.

And let's let the engineers and the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Operations help us define the choices rather than jury-rig our national highway priorities through Congressional earmarks.

It's not AAA versus AASHTO (the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials). Both AAA and AASHTO care deeply about BOTH safety and mobility. Let's not make this mountain tougher to scale than it already is.

Congressional earmarks for transportation projects are distorting spending priorities and delaying improvments to America's air and surface transportation infrastructure and those delays impose huge costs on national productivity and competitiveness, according to an analysis by Bruce Katz and Robert Puentes in the March issue of The Atlantic, aptly titled "Clogged arteries." Katz and Puentes equate the unfocused investment to thickly-spread peanut butter.

A better approach, they argue would be to allocate the $50 billion in annual surface transportation spending where the probems are. Cities are being shortchanged, they say.

The nation's 100 largest metropolitan regions generate 75 percent of its economic output. They also handle 75 percent of its foreign sea cargo, 79 percent of its air cargo, and 92 percent of its air-passenger traffic. Yet of the 6,373 earmarked projects that dominate the current federal transportation law, only half are targeted at these metro areas.

And infrastructure investment is critical to jobs creation, they explain:

In the past, strategic investments in the nation's connective tissue-to develop railroads in the 19th century and the highway system in the 20th-turbocharged growth and transformed the country. But more recently, America's transportation infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth and evolution of the economy. As earmarks have proliferated, the government's infrastructure investment has lost focus. A recent academic study shows that public investment in transportation in the 1970s generated a return approaching 20 percent, mostly in the form of higher productivity. Investments in the 1980s generated only a 5 percent return; in the 1990s, the return was just 1 percent.

Check out their interactive map estimating road-traffic congestion in 2010. The cost of congestion, including added freight cost and lost productivity for commuters, reached $78 billion in 2005. Half of that occurred in just 10 metro areas.