This is the hottest question about salt this Fall, pushing aside questions of whether there is any credible evidence that reducing dietary salt could improve people's health (none yet). This is the topic of the just-released number of the Institute's Salt and Highway Deicing newsletter, now online.

What does an economic index begun in 1744 in London have to do with getting road salt to Cedar Rapids, Iowa in November 2008? It would be speculation, to be sure, to connect the dots, but one thing is certain: the veritable Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is not speculative. The BDI captures real shipping costs around the world and reflects not just the cost of moving raw materials like salt, but is a reliable proxy for economic activity.

Lately, of course, it's been plunging. The inventory of cargo ships is pretty inelastic, so when economic activity stagnates and shipping demand follows, the index falls. Lower shipping rates are great for those who still have goods to ship, of course. And that gets us back to road salt.

With all North American mines working at capacity and fearful snowfighting agencies voicing anxious demand for more salt deliveries, salvation can come only through increased salt imports. With lowered shipping costs, those imports should be more affordable this year than in the past when higher shipping rates economically advantaged domestic producers.

Perhaps the lower BDI, as well as the evidence surge in demand for road salt, explains why the lead story of the October 20 issue of River Transport News reported a spike in salt imports into New Orleans and likely record volumes of upriver salt barge shipments.

Still, yesterday, we received three media calls from Michigan alone. Clearly, if help is on the way, it hasn't arrived yet.

Confirming earlier studies by Global Insight, Inc. and Iowa State University (and, doubtless, many others), the Washington State DOT just released a report on a four-day, winter weather closure of Interstate 90 at Snoqualmie Pass last winter with a total economic loss of $28 million.

The study employs new economic impact assessment methods developed by Washington State University's Social and Economic Sciences Research Center seeking "a reality-based, comprehensive analysis of the effects … on the state's freight-dependent industries and the economy as a whole." The study included a survey of trucking firms and freight-dependent businesses. The study found the four-day storm cost 170 people their jobs and those still employed were penalized $8.6 million in lost wages. State tax revenues declined $1.42 million through reduced economic activity. That's one short segment of one road for one storm.

The "first significant import shipment of bulk salt in more than four years" has hit New Orleans, according to the lead story in the October 20 issue of River Transport News. "Industry observers indicated that over the last three weeks, lower Mississippi imports have accelerated with the arrival of several 40,000-ton shipments. Additional shipments are expected." If sustained, the Port of New Orleans "salt imports could approach or exceed record levels." The previous record was set in 2001 and was nearly matched two years later.

The headline, "Booming Salt Demand Adds More Pressure to Barge Freight," tells the corollary story: upriver salt shipments are straining available barge capacity. "It appears that riverborne salt shipments could reach a new record high this year, exceeding the previous record of 9.7 million tons set in 2004," the RTN story reported. They have averaged 8.5 million tons since 1996, the story added. The additional stress is magnified, the story continued.

Under normal circumstances, the projected increase in riverborne salt shipments would cause barely a ripple in the inland barge market. This year, however, salt shipments are being compressed into a significantly shorter shipping window.

Salt shipments into the upper Midwest got an extremely late start this past spring. The heavy snows and severe weather last winter and spring not only resulted in heavy salt usage; it also resulted in the latest opening of the upper Mississippi River to navigation on record. Shipments were further disrupted in May and June as the upper Mississippi River was periodically closed to navigation due to flooding and high water.

When the reporter called for our explanation for the spike in imports, I noted that they seem to reflect the "supply" response to the "demand" signal sent out a couple months ago by Upper Mississippi state DOTs who sought vastly expanded bid amounts of deicing salt. Surprise. Markets work!

The Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MTO), like most cutting-edge snowfighters in North America, has moved strongly into using liquids in its winter maintenance functions. Among the motivations: reducing the amount of salt used to keep the roadways clear and safe. Unlike many agencies, however, MTO determined to document the benefits achieved by adopting pre-wetting of rock salt and use of salt brine applied directly to roadways ("direct liquid application" or DLA). MTO's chef technology researcher Max Perchanok, reported the agency's findings to the Ontario Good Roads Association's annual Snow and Ice Colloquium yesterday.

MTO's prediction in adopting pre-wetting was that they could achieve the same level of service and save about a third of the salt they applied. An early 1995-99 test using 5% brine achieved a 23% salt reduction and a follow-up study in 2002-03 found that increasing the brine component to 7-15% achieved salt savings of 18% to 40%. As a result, 99% of MTO's (mostly-contractor-operated) fleet now is equipped for pre-wetting. Adoption of pre-wetting was confirmed in another study in 2004-2006 which found an 8% to 30% reduction in granular salt usage.

MTO also moved towards DLA with forecast salt savings of 20% to 30% and all its contractors incorporated DLA into their operations by the wnter of 2005-2006. Confirmatory research, however produced disparate results ranging from no salt savings to savings of 50%. MTO has concluded that it has achieved overall salt reduction, but "salt savings are not confirmed" because of the "highly variable results."

Most surpriing to MTO was the corollary examination of the outcomes of using liquids. Using liquids has allowed the agency to reduce the frequency of salt applications by 17% to 33%. A study in Kenora determined that using liquids reduced the time to achieve bare pavement from an average of 20 hours in 2000 to an average of only 2 hours in 2003 when DLA was implemented. "The level of service improved," MTO concludes. Moreover, a study in Waterloo found a dramatic improvment in crash prevention. Anti-icing with liquids was found far more effective than using pre-wet salt; the study, however, identified only marginal safety improvements in using pre-wet salt which is directly counter to an established relationship in the published research literature that shows performing winter maintenance service slashes crash rates by 85% and injuries by 88%.

In sum, MTO found using liquids improved their operations and, particularly the safety of Ontario highways, achieving a higher level of service and delivering on predicted salt savings, though this latter conclusion was supported only with inconsistent data.

Most issues in the salt industry are invisible to the late-night talk shows and ignored by our cultural arbiters, but the latest flap about the cost and availability of road salt for the coming winter has cut a broad swath. In last night's "The Colbert Report " on the national network Comedy Central, Stephen Colbert, tongue firmly in cheek, called for a return to a salt-based economy as a means of stabilizing the nation's precarious financial condition. "Moving to a salt-based economy is a return to our fiscal roots," he explained.

The price of salt has gotten so high that some cities can't afford enough road salt for the winter and will be forced to de-ice their roads the old fashioned way with global warming. In the last year, salt has gone up from 45 to 79 dollars a ton. A ton of dollars is currently worth two euros. That's why I'm not saying you should invest your money in salt. I'm saying you should convert your money into salt. Moving to a salt-based economy is a return to our fiscal roots. Roman soldiers were paid in salt. It's where we get the word salary which is compensation people get in exchange for doing a job. Ask your parents. Of course, we can't trust our banks anymore, but our salt wealth can be stored in any number of locations.

When budgets get tight, inexperienced managers may curtail training as a frill. Big mistake. Training helps managers get the most from their resources, argues the latest Salt & Highway Deicing newsletter which explains "Earning above-average ROI on your snow and ice control training." Learn how to evaluate how improving operators' attitudes and understanding pays dividends for your agency.

The tragic toll of highway and workplace fatalities both declined in 2007 -- good news for salt companies who contributed to both positive outcomes. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 6% decline in workplace deaths in 2007; overall, occupational fatalities have declined from 5,840 to 5,488; the biggest improvement coming from at-work transportation fatalities. Traffic fatalities declined 3.9% to the lowest number in 13 years. The fatality rate of 1.37 is the lowest ever recorded, according the U.S. Department of Transportation .

Salt companies, likewise, had their safest-ever year in 2007 and sold a near-record amount of live-saving highway salt .

Today's Chicago Tribune informed readers of emergency meetings being held this week among public works managers of Chicago's northern suburbs. Tara Malone and Carolyn Starks reported:

As summer nears its final stretch, many cities and towns across the northern suburbs are stuck in a very wintry, administrative snowdrift: They have no road salt, supply is tight and prices are through the roof.

A similar story appeared in today's Pittsburgh, PA Tribune-Review.

Thirty-four salt storage facilities in 7 states and 2 Canadian provinces were first-time winners in the Salt Institute's 2008 Excellence in Storage Award program. The winners were unveiled during the American Public Works Association Congress today in New Orleans. An additional 63 facilities earned "continuing excellence" designation. Visit our website for more details.

The latest Salt and Highway Deicing features a discussion on how agencies can optimize "Inventory Management and Cost Minimization." Coming out of last winter's near-record salt usage, agency storage facilities were largely empty making the article timely reading for snowfighting professionals.

The Transportation Research Board has produced a new report, Cost effective performance measures for travel time delay, variation and reliability with application and implications for winter roadway operations. NCHRP Report 618 argues that highway

system users-the traveling public, as well as commercial operators-are increasingly sensitive to delay and unreliable conditions. By measuring travel-time performance, and related system metrics based on travel time, agencies will be better able to plan and operate their systems to achieve the best result for a given level of investment. At the same time, travelers, shippers, and other users of those systems will have better information for planning their use of the system.

In winter storms, agencies meet their "customers'" concerns for delay and reliability through salting and plowing. Measuring road surface outcomes is the key to delivering on customer expectations.

Report 618 guides agencies to using cost-effective techniques to gather and process data enabling real-time management decisions which can significantly improve winter roadway safety.

Snow Drifts is the monthly e-newsletter of the Snow and Ice Management Association (SIMA) offering "Articles by Snow People, For Snow People." The July issue features my article "Salt Supply and the Snow & Ice Contractor 2008/2009 Season" explaining the challenges salt suppliers face in providing road salt to the small private contractors who are SIMA members.

Measured by the number of media calls, requests for Salt Institute presentations and webinars and trade press articles, the "salt shortage" stories of last winter were just a warm-up for what we can expect in the coming months. Latest evidence: a story in the Elyria, OH Chronicle-Telegram by reporter Brad Dicken which extracted the pearl of our interview when he told readers:

Although increased fuel and transportation costs are contributing factors to the rise in prices - asphalt also shot up in price this year - last year's hard winter led to the nation using more salt than normal and leading to an increased demand this year, said Richard Hanneman, president of the Salt Institute.

What a market! Last year's 20.3 million tons of road salt was the second-highest ever. But the year before, 2006, we sold only 12.1 million tons, lowest since 1998. And the year earlier, 2005, set the all-time record of 20.5 million tons. Not too many industries are asked to boost sales by two-thirds in a year as the salt industry did from 2006 to 2007. And, from publicly announced bid amounts we've seen so far this year, agencies want even more.

Highway departments are understandably concerned to have enough salt this winter after last year's severe snowfighting season left them scrambling for scarce supplies and entirely emptied the "salt pipeline" everywhere from mines to customer storage facilities. Many increased their bids, putting even more pressure on salt production and distribution. The consequences surfaced in the form of higher bid prices; an example is this from Sandusky, OH.

Even working the mines around the clock, it's going to be tight this year. High water forced closure of the locks and dams on the upper Mississippi River for about four weeks and what consumers see as high gas prices at the pump are adding new costs to both production and, especially, salt distribution. Order early. Store a full year's supply. This age-old advice will be tested this winter.