This is the hottest question about salt this Fall, pushing aside questions of whether there is any credible evidence that reducing dietary salt could improve people's health (none yet). This is the topic of the just-released number of the Institute's Salt and Highway Deicing newsletter, now online.
What does an economic index begun in 1744 in London have to do with getting road salt to Cedar Rapids, Iowa in November 2008? It would be speculation, to be sure, to connect the dots, but one thing is certain: the veritable Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is not speculative. The BDI captures real shipping costs around the world and reflects not just the cost of moving raw materials like salt, but is a reliable proxy for economic activity.
Lately, of course, it's been plunging. The inventory of cargo ships is pretty inelastic, so when economic activity stagnates and shipping demand follows, the index falls. Lower shipping rates are great for those who still have goods to ship, of course. And that gets us back to road salt.
With all North American mines working at capacity and fearful snowfighting agencies voicing anxious demand for more salt deliveries, salvation can come only through increased salt imports. With lowered shipping costs, those imports should be more affordable this year than in the past when higher shipping rates economically advantaged domestic producers.
Perhaps the lower BDI, as well as the evidence surge in demand for road salt, explains why the lead story of the October 20 issue of River Transport News reported a spike in salt imports into New Orleans and likely record volumes of upriver salt barge shipments.
Still, yesterday, we received three media calls from Michigan alone. Clearly, if help is on the way, it hasn't arrived yet.
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