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December 27, 2007

"Medical myths: Sometimes even doctors are duped"

Two child specialists issue a timely reminder in the December 22 issue of the British Medical Journal. Indianpolis-based Rachel C Vreeman, a fellow in children’s health services research, and Aaron E Carroll, an assistant professor of pediatrics, remind physicians not to be taken in by myths perpetuated in medical science:

Physicians understand that practicing good medicine requires the constant acquisition of new knowledge, though they often assume their existing medical beliefs do not need re-examination. ...

Even physicians sometimes believe medical myths contradicted by scientific evidence.

The prevalence and endorsement of simple medical myths point to the need to continue to question what other falsehoods physicians endorse.

Examining why we believe myths and using evidence to dispel false beliefs can move us closer to evidence based practice.

Let's face it, doctors are busy people. Reading all the latest journals -- and, particularly, the methods sections that often contain the key statistical manipulations -- is a virtually insurmountable task for GPs or area specialists like those serving our children. Take, for example, an aricle on salt and blood pressure in children published in the Journal of Human Hypertension in September 2007 by anti-salt war chief Graham MacGregor and his associates. MacGregor et al reported that

An increase of 1g/day in salt intake was related to an increase of 0.4 mm Hg in systolic and 0.6 mm Hg in pulse pressure....The consistent finding of our present analysis of a random sample of free-living indiviudals with that from controlled salt reduction trials provides further support for a reduction in salt intake in children and adolescents.

That's the item that may have caught readers' attention and, if so, it would have perpetuated another myth -- that salt was important to the blood pressure of children. Don't blame the journal, however; the editors commissioned an editorial to attempt to keep the story straight -- and they continue to make that editorial available as their top-listed Featured Article. In that corrective editorial, fomer International Society of Hypertension president Michael H. Alderman explains:

Specifically, a difference in salt intake of 1 g was associated with a 0.4 mm Hg rise in blood pressure. However, the significance of this relationship disappeared after correction for energy intake. ...

Regrettably, the current report provides little information regarding other associations to blood pressure or variations in other characteristics that might be associated with variations in sodium intake. For example, stature and physical maturation are associated with blood pressure. Bigger children may be muscular or pudgy. Children who exercise vigorously may have large energy (and sodium) intakes, and be taller and leaner than youngsters who have the same body mass index and different life styles. Cooper et al. postulated that the strong link of creatinine to blood pressure might reflect muscle mass and perhaps be a marker of body size. This, in turn, might be the most powerful determinant of blood pressure in children—more important than age or sodium. Perhaps, the best measure of growth and development available here is mid-arm circumference. The strong arm to blood pressure correlation may reflect muscle mass and suggests that diets high in energy (and therefore, among other things, sodium) may be conducive to physical maturation, along with a slightly higher blood pressure. In short, if this were the causal pathway, then higher pressure might even be a desirable sign in children.

Dietary intake is complex, and to characterize it on the basis of one element may well oversimplify any assessment of its value. For example, given the high correlation of energy with virtually all other nutrients, it is possible that those consuming more sodium (and energy) had more satisfactory consumption of other important dietary elements—both known and unknown. In any event, blood pressure is not the only measure of the health of children. The British Survey of Young People probably includes, in addition to physical and physiological data, information on other social, economic and developmental characteristics whose explanation might well inform our understanding of the relation of blood pressure, diet, health and development in these youngsters. Of note, He et al. also provide some other interesting information. For example, they note that 18-year-old British residents, in 1997, were consuming 2.6-g of sodium per day. That was similar to levels found in Chicago a decade earlier, and falls within the range of adult sodium intake seen world-wide in most countries and suggests that, a decade and 2 ago, these near adults were within that range.

It is also interesting to note that measures of discretionary sodium use did not correlate with blood pressure. This supports the Cochrane Collaboration conclusion that there was not sufficient evidence for a general dietary recommendation to reduce sodium intake. (emphasis added)

Medical myths can cause real damage. With regard to children, it seems that once corrected for caloric intake, there is no association of blood pressure and salt intake, but there IS a strong association of calories (and salt) with healthy development of children. Perhaps the biggest myth is that diet is less important than its component nutrients. Don't let your pediatrician get duped or pass on medical mythology.

December 26, 2007

Is it the food, or is it us?

Or should we title this: "Get government out of the bedroom ... and the kitchen"?

Don't miss the "Brave New Diet" op ed piece by Sally C. Pipes in today's Washington Post. To give you a flavor, she points out that basketball superstar Kobe Bryant and undefeated New England Patriot's QB Tom Brady -- to say nothing of "Hollywood hearttrobs" Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Tom Cruise and George Clooney" -- are all "fatties." They're overweight using today's metrics. Besides some useful facts on government games-playing on the obesity issue, the political insight about dietary guidelines is particularly timely -- and planned -- for this holiday season with its parties and feasts. Ms. Pipes notes that

"underlying this ["common political refrain that America faces a childhood obesity epidemic"] is the premise that we're helpless before gingerbread cookies and honey-roasted hams -- unable to resist these and other foods and incapable of putting down our forks. We can be cured, it seems, only by government intervention such as the banning of trans-fats and sodas from public schools.

But is it the food, or is it us? Is it a proper role of government to tell us what we can or can't eat?

She poses some questions she'd like answered "[b]efore we let Uncle Sam into our kitchens, at school or at home" and concludes:

People make choices. And government should protect -- not restrict -- the freedom to make those choices so long as we're not harming others.

While we may not always like the choices others might make, it is essential that we all have the freedom to choose for ourselves. Once we accept the idea that the Nanny State should step in when it's "for our own good," we've taken a very big step down the road to something like the scene painted in George Orwell's "1984" -- when citizens wake each day to mandatory exercise classes on the Telescreen.

Most of us would prefer to choose for ourselves whether to exercise or have an extra helping of apple pie. And if we gain an extra pound over the holidays -- so what? That's why we have New Year's resolutions.


December 24, 2007

Blood pressure risk versus heart attack risk

How can it be that Americans are living longer and healthier lives than ever before and yet dying in unprecedented numbers from chronic diseases? Are we confusing risks of proxy conditions for real risks of adverse health events?

Successful people live in the present, but they think seriously about the future. They invest themselves and their resources to make tomorrow better than today and to cushion the inevitable bumps in life’s road. Through learned precept or harsh experience, they know that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” They’ve also learned to count their blessings along the way, to temper their worry about the future by appreciating the good fortune they’ve enjoyed.

We use the same thought process to fashion public health policy. As a society, we have never been healthier nor longer-lived, yet these hard-won achievements are tempered with recognition that many amongst us and elsewhere in the world live Hobbesian lives. We recognize the fragility of our personal health and the imposing shadow of chronic disease in our lives and in our families. We invest ourselves, sometimes wisely, sometimes not, in quests to improve our diet and fitness and otherwise protect our health and that of our loved ones. We crave security in matters inherently uncertain. We sacrifice to prevent potential threats, often accepting taxes and social regimentation, believing that using a seatbelt or getting a flu shot is a reasonable trade-off against injuries in car crashes or a flu pandemic.

Just as we do as individuals, as a society we accept risk trade-offs, but we do it based on our belief that these risks have been fairly described. While each of us has a unique set of risk tolerances, the entire calculus is undermined if the information fed into this vast social “brain” is compromised by poorly-understood data limitations or manipulated by unseen parties with special interest bias.

Not to say that these choices are easy. We are beset, as individuals and citizens, with media coverage of emerging science which often seems conflicting. We hear blaring warnings about health threats and advocates’ impassioned appeals for action on divergent strategies based on different diagnoses. It’s confusing.

Take, for example, two recent “authoritative” pronouncements. In the new publication from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Health, United States, 2007, a compendium of more than 150 tables reporting data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as we reported earlier:

Life expectancy is at an all-time high. Females live longer than males, but a baby born in 1900 would live until 1948 (men) or 1951 (women) -- 48 and 51 years, respectively. Boomers born in 1950 will live, on average until 2015 (men) or 2021 (women) -- 65.5 and 71 years, respectively). The new report predicts children born in 2004 will live until 2079 (men) and 2084 (women) -- 75.2 and 80.4 years respectively. We take it for granted, but it's big news. And good news.

Children are healthier. In just the past quarter century, the number of children who died before age 14 has been cut in half -- in half! (since the mid-20th century, the rate has been cut 80%). Youth and teens are 60% less likely to be in "fair" or "poor" health. Almost as good as Ivory Soap, 98.2% of our children are healthy.

Adults are thriving, too. Despite our aging population, the percentage of all people in "fair" or "poor" health has dropped in a decade by more than 10% -- from 10.4% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2005. Physical limitations have also been dropping, from 13.3% to 11.7% over the past eight years while age-adjusted vision- and hearing-impairment, over the same period, have improved a remarkable 65% (dropping from 10% to 3.5%).

Mortality continues to decline. The new figures confirm those we reported earlier this year in comparing the U.S. with Americans' steady salt intakes with mortality figures in Finland which compromised its health improvements as it reduced its population's salt intake. Overall, age-adjusted mortality for all of the leading causes of death are in decline -- cut in half since 1950. In just the past 14 years, deaths from the leading cause, heart disease, have dropped by a third. Deaths from the second-leading cause, cancer, have fallen 14% and the third, stroke, by a whopping 72% (with no reduction in dietary salt). The key is age-adjusting. If we don't die of something in our youth or early adulthood, we reach old age where we (all, eventually) die of "old age" ailments like respiratory infections or Alzheimers's. In fact, the biggest risk of dying is getting old.

But, just as we were feeling that perhaps all the doom and gloom of rising health costs and millions without health insurance, was a manageable challenge, The Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease, a new national coalition of business and labor groups, issued its “Policy Platform” declaring that “rising rates of chronic health problems pose a significant and unsustainable burden on the U.S. health care system” and called for Americans to display “a willingness to enact policies that help Americans better prevent and manage chronic illnesses.” The Platform calls on the presidential candidates to “highlight common-sense reforms.” Pointing out that 77% of U.S. healthcare costs are due to chronic disease, it cites (other) CDC figures showing two-thirds of American children will develop diabetes leading to “lower life expectancy than their parents.” Scary stuff. The Platform throws around a lot of numbers, too, such as alleging that obesity costs society $200 billion a year.

Head-scratching time. What about the other CDC figures that show that overweight Americans are actually healthier than their thinner fellow-citizens ( 1 2 3 4 )? You may remember: the ones CDC issued as revisions to their earlier obesity alert.

Now, let’s accept that the people making these analyses are most likely fair-minded advocates for their views. The first thought in sorting this out is the correct one: consult the data; a close reading of the studies may help explain the discrepancies and where the authors of various studies may have claimed more than their data show. There is another possibility, however.

While there is general consensus that preventing cancer or heart disease is better – and likely less expensive – than caring for the victim after a malignant tumor is discovered or a heart attack occurs, the differing statistical worldviews as described in Health, United States, 2007 and the PFCD Platform may come down to how risk is defined.

Take the seat belt example. Unrestrained car drivers and passengers are clearly at greater risk of injury or death than those who “buckle up for safety.” We’d never, knowingly, combine the two groups to determine the average risk when the documentation of the very different risk profiles is available.

Transfer that thinking to the question of the risk of high blood pressure. About 20% of Americans have high blood pressure, hypertension. And hypertension is responsible for about 16% of heart disease. The 20% with high blood pressure include, of course, those whose current blood pressure exceeds the defined minimum 140/90 mmHg. But the calculation also includes all those whose blood pressure would have been at the “hypertension” threshold except that they took medications or made lifestyle adjustments to lower their blood pressure. Those who managed their blood pressure (like those with seat belts), surely have a lower risk. Unlike the seat belt example, however, they are all lumped together: “once a hypertensive, always a hypertensive.” The group that modified its blood pressure should be considered a separate, lower-risk group. By lumping them together, we inflate the number of people identified at risk and targeted for public health concern.

Better data would, thus, help us understand why we continue to have a large number of people with hypertension while at the same time we have achieved fantastic reductions in the rate of heart disease. Hypertension is often “sold” as a disease when it is, rather, an indicator, a marker, an intermediate variable. We are concerned about heart attacks, strokes and mortality. When it comes to treating this surrogate marker, we must never lose track of the real objective: improving health outcomes, not modifying “risk factors” – especially one that explains only one-sixth of the problem. The body is complex and its systems, redundant and interconnected. Simple solutions may make great headlines, but they don’t change the “medical facts of life.”

So, as we marshal our resources and prioritize our public health targets, let’s keep in mind that efforts to prevent chronic disease must be assigned using real-world data. We can prevent high blood pressure, but if the side-effects (e.g. increased insulin resistance, elevated plasma renin activity, etc.) impose unanticipated costs, we need to prevent heart attacks using the best weapons we have. And those weapons are proven. They include medications. They may include lifestyle interventions like weight control and fitness. They don’t include salt reduction for the general population.

December 15, 2007

Senate drops Harkin's federal pre-emption of school snacks

An amendment mandating federal pre-emption of varying state rules governing the types of snack foods allowable in public schools was dropped from the Farm Bill two days ago. A spokesperson for the Center for Science in the Public Interest voiced deep disappointment in the effort to update nutrition guidance nearly 30 years old.

Just a week earlier, lead sponsor Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) claimed "broad support" for the measure which sought to impose federal school nutrition standards for foods and beverages offered in school vending machines, school stores and other non-school meal programs which are covered by separate guidelines.

The amendment was similar to The Child Nutrition Promotion and School Lunch Protection Act which Sen. Harkin has introduced into the past two Congresses. The Snack Food Association supported a voluntary approach to upgrading school nutrition choices.

Good (health) news you probably missed

Do you ever tire of the drumbeat of health problems reported in the MSM? We are conditioned to fear leaving the house or eating ANYTHING (and most accidents occur at home!). Since the threats are omnipresent and clearly overwhelming, of course SOMEONE must save us from them. Guess who?

Well, sometimes injection of even a bit of data into the discussion is like taking a pill for the pain. The new publication from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Health, United States, 2007 is a compendium of more than 150 tables reporting data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data confirm some common observations (e.g. our population is older, more divere ethnically and has more foreign-born members), but most of all confirm that America is not the health backwater that we read about in the newspapers.

Life expectancy is at an all-time high. Females live longer than males, but a baby born in 1900 would live until 1948 (men) or 1951 (women) -- 48 and 51 years, respectively. Boomers born in 1950 will live, on average until 2015 (men) or 2021 (women) -- 65.5 and 71 years, respectively). The new report predicts children born in 2004 will live until 2079 (men) and 2084 (women) -- 75.2 and 80.4 years respectively. We take it for granted, but it's big news. And good news.

Chiidren are healthier. Sure, anti-salt activists intend to bombard the media with stories next month about how UNhealthy children are, but the facts say otherwise. In just the past quarter century, the number of children who died before age 14 has been cut in half -- in half! (since the mid-20th century, the rate has been cut 80%). Youth and teens are 60% less likely to be in "fair" or "poor" health. Almost as good as Ivory Soap, 98.2% of our children are healthy.

Adults, too. Despite our aging population, the percentage of all people in "fair" or "poor" health has dropped in a decade by more than 10% -- from 10.4% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2005. Physical limitations have also been dropping, from 13.3% to 11.7% over the past eight years while age-adjusted vision- and hearing-impairment, over the same period, have improved a remarkable 65% (dropping from 10% to 3.5%).

Mortality continues to decline. The new figures confirm those we reported earlier this year in comparing the U.S. with Americans' steady salt intakes with mortality figures in Finland which compromised its health improvements as it reduced its population's salt intake. Overall, age-adjusted mortality for all of the leading causes of death are in decline -- cut in half since 1950. In just the past 14 years, deaths from the leading cause, heart disease, have dropped by a third. Deaths from the second-leading cause, cancer, have fallen 14% and the third, stroke, by a whopping 72% (with no reduction in dietary salt). The key is age-adjusting. If we don't die of something in our youth or early adulthood, we reach old age where we (all, eventually) die of "old age" ailiments like respiratory infections or alzheimers's. In fact, the biggest risk of dying is getting old.

Great news, huh? Didn't read about it in the paper? We can blame the journalists, of course, but don't excuse the government with its own built-in bias to focus on health problems. How's a bureaucrat to extract your tax dollars and convert them into budgets to keep the federal bureaucracy going if the problems are going away?

HHS guided the press on what to report (e.g. "the high prevalence of people with unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors" for which HHS has remedial programs. One of those is likely to be universal sodium reduction -- a policy with no proven health benefit. Of course, the big bugaboo is overweight, but we've been seeing studies (also from CDC if memory serves) showing that the overweight group actually scored better health outcomes.

Let's take heart from the good news of our health statistics and use these valued data to direct and prioritize future investments in Americans' health.

New federal data confirms dietary sodium intake stable

Americans' nutrient intakes have been tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture since the 1930s. New 2003-2004 data were released yesterday showing Americans' salt consumption remains stable. The National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) data were analysed in a new report, What We Eat in America, NHANES, 2003-2004, showing that dietary sodium intakes averaged 3,408 mg/day.

Anti-salt alarmists often contend that Americans are eating 4,000 - 5,000 mg/day; some even as high as 7,000 mg/day.

The NHANES data require one explanatory note, however. They track only sodium naturally occurring in foods (estimated to be about 10% of the total) and that being added in non-home food preparation either in restaurants or in the preparation of commercial food products (estimated to be 75% - 80% of the total). About 10% - 15% is added in home cooking or at the table. So, it would seem reasonable to add 10 - 15% to that 3,408 for Americans' intakes. The background intake levels of persons enrolled in medical trials where sodium data is measured accurately actually produce lower values, however, so the "dietary recall" of NHANES subjects may not be exactly right. Even so, the data have been produced in a consistent stream since the early 1970s and represent a time series. Over time, the measurements have improved, resulting in somewhat higher numbers, but the gradual rise in sodium recorded in the NHANES data also reflect another dynamic, often overlooked.

At least since WW II, Americans have been eating more foods prepared outside the home and doing less home cooking. In 1972, for example, restaurant spending represented 26% of Americans' total food spending. By 2004, that had risen to 42%. "Round can" sales of table salt have steadily eroded as less is being added at home. Since the medical studies show consistent sodium intakes over the past century, the decline in round can sales offsets the rise in NHANES-collected data on sodium in processed foods. This amounts to less than a half percent per year, but over time it adds up.

And it conveys a picture that is easily demagogued by anti-salt activists who claim Americans are eating not only too much salt, but more salt than in the past. The NHANES data put the lie to that assertion.

December 10, 2007

Is "the new taste sensation" really a salt replacer?

It's been quite a few years now that food technologists and chefs have accepted that "umami," is "the fifth taste." -- beyond sweet, sour, bitter and salty. First identified by a Japanese scientist a century ago, the Wall Street Journal explained December 8, "umami has long been an obscure culinary concept. Hard to describe, it is usually defined as a meaty, savory, satisfying taste." The Journal's Katy McLaughlin continues:

To understand the taste of umami, imagine a perfectly dressed Caesar salad, redolent of Parmesan cheese, minced anchovies and Worcestershire sauce; or slurping chicken soup; or biting into a slice of pepperoni-and-mushroom pizza. The savory taste of these foods, and the full, tongue-coating sensation they provide, is umami.

The popularity of umami is tied to consumers' quest for healthier food, McLaughlin says.

The food industry is embracing umami as part of an effort to deliver highly flavored foods to consumers while also cutting back on fat, salt, sugar and artificial ingredients. At the same time, more consumers are scrutinizing food labels for chemical-sounding words and unhealthy ingredients.

Could be, Katy, but how do you then explain umami's Asian roots in cultures with among the highest salt intakes in the world?

December 08, 2007

Make up your own number; they did

The news media's been reporting a paper in The Lancet this past week that purports to "prove" that salt produces chronic disease mortality, killing 8.5 million persons around the world. As the headline writers penned, that would be a serious condition, indeed, if it were true. But a closer look shows the authors engaged in the same statistical sleight-of-hand that was on display at the FDA hearing a couple weeks ago.

No matter how you quantify the enormous costs associated with chronic disease and, in this case, heart disease, the key to assessing the veracity of the numbers associated with salt is the linkage. Simply put, there is none. It's manufactured -- it exists only as the product of a mathematical model that assumed that lower salt diets WILL lower population blood pressure AND that lowering BP in this way WILL produce the lower incidence of CV death. GIGO's the term for it; garbage in, garbage out.

In fact, the authors cite one of two studies of salt reduction in Finland. The study they don't report is the health outcomes of Finand over the year it reduced its citzens' salt intake. Absent any control, the numbers show improvement, but compared with other countries over the years, Finland lagged behind those countries that did NOT reduce salt .

That The Lancet would choose to publish this reflects the policy preference on the author, not a substantive contribution to public health nutrition policy.

December 03, 2007

Salt and SWET

The University of Nottingham announced November 27 that it has received funding of nearly £1million from the UK Department of Health to study 310 families in hard water areas in Nottingham and Leicester, Cambridge, London and the Isle of Wight over the next year to determine if use of ion-exchange water softeners is an effective treatment for childhood eczema.

The Soft Water Eczema Trial (SWET) is based on positive findings of a 7,000-child epidemiologic study reported a year ago. The earlier study confirmed the contention of families of eczema sufferers and some doctors that living in a hard water area may make eczema worse. The theory is that hard water contains high levels of calcium and magnesium, leading to increased use of soaps which can act as skin irritants.

The new trial will soften all household water except that for drinking. Principal investigator, professor Hywel Williams explained in the University's news release:

“I have wanted to do this study for many years as patients keep telling me that water softeners help their skin, but other people aren't so sure. Carrying out a proper randomised controlled trial will help us find the answer. If ion-exchange water softeners are found to improve the symptoms of eczema, this will be an extremely important finding for both patients and doctors. Many patients worry about the possible side effects of the usual treatments for eczema, so this would be a welcome addition to their treatment options.”

The news release underscored the importance of the research:

Up to one fifth of all children of school age have eczema, along with about one in twelve of the adult population. The severity of the disease can vary. In mild forms the skin is dry, red and itchy, whist in more severe forms the skin can become broken, raw and bleeding. Eczema is not contagious and with treatment the inflammation of eczema can be reduced, though the skin will always be sensitive to flare-ups and need extra care and protection against dryness.